Brazil woke up with that peculiar feeling election nights sometimes leave behind: nobody has won yet, but somebody has discovered that he lost more than expected.
Flávio Bolsonaro finished first. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finished second. Barely two percentage points separate them — too little to proclaim a revolution, but quite enough to understand that something has shifted beneath Brazilian politics.
They will meet again at the ballot box on October 25.
Until then, Brazil has a few weeks to ask itself not merely who should govern it, but something considerably more uncomfortable: what kind of country does it want to be?
Lula is no longer merely Lula. He carries decades of Brazilian history on his shoulders: social achievements, defeats, political resurrections, scandals, fierce loyalties and equally fierce rejection. At 80, he represents more than a programme of government.
He represents an era.
Flávio Bolsonaro is not merely Flávio either. His surname reaches the ballot paper before his first name does. He is Jair Bolsonaro’s son and the political heir to a movement that survived the end of his father’s presidency, judicial battles and everything its opponents once believed would be enough to bury it.
It was not buried.
The ballot box has just said so, displaying that irritating habit ballot boxes have of failing to consult commentators, pollsters and television pundits beforehand.
There is an elementary lesson here worth reading without ideological spectacles: almost half of electoral Brazil chose Flávio Bolsonaro and almost the other half chose Lula.
That is not a country conquered by the right.
Nor is it an eternally progressive Brazil.
It is a divided country.
And perhaps this is where saudade enters the story.
For decades Brazil was the promise of tomorrow: the sleeping giant that would one day awaken, the country of the future. A nation capable of combining industry, agriculture, oil, minerals, culture, music, science, rainforest, immense cities and more than two hundred million people beneath a flag bold enough to promise “Order and Progress”.
But the future has an unfortunate habit: announce it for long enough and it can grow old before it arrives.
Brazil is once again choosing between two political families, two narratives and two almost opposite explanations of the nation. On one side stand Lula and the Workers’ Party. On the other stands, once again, a Bolsonaro.
Even surnames have begun to resemble institutions.
Meanwhile ordinary life continues paying rent, filling petrol tanks, looking for work, buying groceries and wondering what tomorrow will cost.
That is often where elections are truly decided.
Flávio enters the runoff with an obvious psychological advantage: he won a first round many expected him to lose. Yet the votes cast for eliminated candidates do not come with title deeds.
Votes belong to voters.
That is why crowning Flávio Bolsonaro today would be foolish.
Writing Lula’s political obituary would be even more so.
Few Latin American politicians have demonstrated Lula’s ability to return just as somebody begins composing his epitaph.
He must now persuade millions of Brazilians that he still represents the future, rather than merely a past some remember with saudade.
Flávio faces the opposite test. He must show that he is more than a son who inherited a surname, a political machine and a loyal crowd.
He must prove that he can govern Brazil, not merely defeat the PT.
Winning an election requires votes.
Governing Brazil requires rather more.
So Brazil will return to the polls on October 25.
One man will carry the Bolsonaro name.
The other will carry half a century of history called Lula.
Between them stand millions of Brazilians who may be enthusiastic about neither, yet must decide which man better represents what they still hope for.
There lies the melancholy beauty of this election.
Brazil is still searching for the future.
This time, however, it must find it while walking among its memories.
And saudade, when it enters politics, can make a magnificent song.
But it should never become a programme for government.
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Sources consulted: Agência Senado, ANSA, Reuters.